唛可奈茵官方旗舰店「『网址』:———cuiyao999.com———」综上所述:(1)7 月社融见顶后加速回落,消费补贴透支效应显现,地产投资低位徘徊,制造业动能放缓。物价方面,M1连续回升但传导仍慢,短期 PPI 处于低位,缺乏需求端共振。(2)流动性方面,央行“呵护”态度明确,市场普遍预期流动性“易松难紧”。10 月政府债缴款、税期高峰、月末财政支出错位带来扰动。(3)中美贸易摩擦升温,市场风险偏好短期内明显下降,整体或利好债市,因此维持中性久期的建议。
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